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Fig. 7.—Numerical Objective Forecast Displacement Error
tures. Figure 8 shows the 24-hour 500-millibar forecast prepared at the National Meteorological Center. It successfully predicted the behavior of the important features over the southeastern United States. This guidance forecast is typical of such forecasts provided during the period.
An important operational objective of the warning service is to improve the diagnostic techniques for the tropical regions. Advances in technique development have not been as rapid as in the more northern latitudes and the team concurs that improvement is desirable. The utilization of low-level winds derived from emerging satellite technologies offers considerable promise.
Increasing dependence is being placed upon improved atmospheric prediction models. The largest single deterrent to use of improved models is necessarily related to the input data. Thus a solution or circumvention of this ob-
stacle is vital. Fortunately, technology in the form of the Geostationary Environmental Satellite and ATS-III satellites will permit a breakthrough here by improving the observational system supporting forecast operations. Details on tropical wind circulations that are not otherwise available and vital to successful predictions will become available within about three years.
Finally, the team believes that the performance of existing prediction models indicates that there is considerable potential for improving the accuracy of the prediction of hurricane motion through the development of improved mathematical models. A reduction in the prediction error from the present average of 115 miles in 24 hours to the order of 75 miles seems possible.
It is recommended that a major research and development program be mounted with
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