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Chapter V
Economic Aspects and Priorities
CAMILLE had the potential of becoming' the greatest national disaster in the history of the United States. It is estimated that the 15-hour warning given the people between New Orleans and the Florida panhandle on August 17 saved 50,000 lives. Without putting a price on human life, it is evident that the hurricane warning service and community actions which keep the the population prepared for such disasters are earning their way. Here the success was not the result of an ability to predict with precision for long periods in advance the course of the storm. Rather, it was the utilization of the warning in conjunction with an extensive preparedness action leading to a planned response to a specific warning.
Because of the size of their investments, large shipping and industrial activities can be expected to be responsive to hurricane warnings. This is not the case with the general public. It has been estimated* that normally we may only expect that 20 percent of the population will take protective action in response to hurricane warnings. If this estimate is accepted, then it follows that increased use of existing services through the placing of more emphasis on public education and community preparedness programs will pay large dividends. Within the overall hurricane warning service system including the data acquisition, communications, processing, interpretation, dissemination, information, and preparedness subsystems, we are convinced that additional incremental expenditures in public education and community preparedness programs will provide the largest immediate benefits. This will be true until the majority of the communities along the U. S. Gulf and Atlantic coastline are prepared to respond as was the case in CAMILLE. We do not believe that such response is uniformly possible now.
‘Arnold A. Sugg, “Economic Aspects of Hurricanes," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 95, No. 3, March 1967, pp. 143-146.
Of nearly equal importance to public education and preparedness is the continuing production of quality service by Weather Bureau facilities during storms. The need for maintaining an “official voice” from the Weather Bureau seems paramount in disasters such as this.
While much has been learned about hurricanes, skill in their forecasting has reached a plateau. The principal obstacles are related to the improvements of the acquisition of meteorological data and development of improved atmospheric models whose rapid numerical solution will result in better forecasts. The survey team feels that improved forecast techniques can reduce the 24-hour prediction error from the present 115 miles in 24 hours to the order of 75 miles. If accomplished this would reduce significantly the unnecessary costs resulting from overwarning. In that regard Sugg’s study* suggests protective action reduces losses by 50 percent; from this an estimate is made that the hurricane warning service saves in excess of $32 million while spending or causing to be spent an additional $7 million during the average season. Gross forecast errors could cause unnecessary costs which might range up to $17 million.
The strengthening of the hurricane warning system requires all three actions indicated above. The establishment of priorities is fundamental to their orderly accomplishment. It is recommended that highest priority be given to the following:
1.	Public education and community preparedness programs.
2.	Improved aircraft reconnaissance.
3.	Safe quarters and reliable power and communication facilities.
4.	Forecasting research and technique development based upon new technologies, to be accelerated as we approach a minimum standard of preparedness and public awareness of the consequences of a failure to respond to hurricane warnings.
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